04 November 2004

A Full Investigation is Required

Marc Sapir - November 04, 2004

In the weeks before the November 2, 2004 Presidential Election partisan pollsters focused on which candidate was getting a bounce from which immediate issue of the day. Meanwhile writers on the AAPOR (American Association for Public Opinion Research) list serve were appropriately concerned more with which likely voter screens might have the highest accuracy at predicting who would vote on election day. During this period I told friends who asked that I thought the outcome would depend less on particular issues than on the size of the turnout. My reasons were not obscure.

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