12 November 2004

47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly

By Jonathan Simon

" In the 12 critical states (CO,FL,MI,MN,NE,NV,NH,NM,OH,PA,WI,IA) the average discrepancy was a 2.5% red shift (= total movement of 5.0%), nearly twice that in the safe states. "

Introduction by Scoop Co-Editor Alastair Thompson

By the time of the close of polls at around 5pm EST on election day the buzz on the world wide web – including here at Scoop - was that Kerry had was a shoe in for election 2004. Slate Magazine and the Daily Kos had published the swing state exit polls before the polls had even closed. The news was very good for Kerry supporters.

According to the exit polls Kerry was showing a 1% popular vote margin over Bush. But more importantly he was shown leading by a nose in Florida and a solid 4% in Ohio. Because of the way the Electoral College system works this meant that he had almost certainly won.

The polls have significant sized samples in all states and ask actual voters who they actually voted for and so are traditionally very accurate.

As we now know they weren't very accurate once midnight came and went.

Or were they?


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